Mavericks vs. Suns prediction, odds, player prop bets: Luka Doncic goes off again

Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals will feature two of the best teams in basketball.

The Dallas Mavericks made quick work of the Utah Jazz without Luka Doncic for most of their first-round series.

A similar thing can be said with the Phoenix Suns, who only had Devin Booker for 2 1/2 games in their series.

Both teams survived and each player should be fully healthy headed into this highly entertaining series.

Below, I breakdown Game 1 of this best-of-seven series.

Mavericks vs. Suns odds

Odds provided by PointsBet

Spread: DAL +6 (-110) vs. PHO -6 (-110)

Moneyline: DAL (+190) vs. PHO (-240)

Total: Over 214.5 (-105) | Under 214.5 (-115)

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Mavericks vs. Suns prediction

Let’s start with this: In his career, Doncic has only been eliminated from playoff contention by Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers. Both of those playoff series were incredibly close and even last year’s series went seven games. At that point in the postseason, the Clippers were the favorites to win it all before Leonard tore his ACL.

The Mavericks are a very dangerous team and even losing Kristaps Porzingis seems to have been addition by subtraction. Here are the stats you need to know:

  • The Mavericks ended the regular season with a 23-7 record after they traded Kristaps Porzingis, tied with the Celtics (23-6) for most wins in the NBA.
  • They have the most 3-pointers made per game in the playoffs (15.5) in 30 games. This is up drastically from their prior 52 games in which they averaged 12.3 three-pointers made, just 14th in the league.

Conversely, the Suns do not take nearly as many 3-pointers. They take the second-least amount of 3-pointers per game, just 27.2 per game, and make the second-least (8.7).

Mavericks Suns prediction and odds
Luka Doncic steps back for a three-point shot
Getty Images

This series will be won or lost with 3-pointers for the Mavericks. They do not have very many big men to contest drives from Chris Paul or defend dump-offs to Deandre Ayton.

The Mavericks can get hot in any game which would be very difficult for the Suns to deal with. For player prop bets, any ‘3-pointers made’ bets are worthy ones, especially for players like Reggie Bullock, Doncic and even Dorian Finney-Smith

With these numbers provided above being considered, the Mavericks have been so good to end the year that they are worth backing going forward until proven otherwise — even against the Suns.

Mavericks vs. Suns Game One Prediction: Mavericks +6 -110 (BetMGM)

Mavericks vs. Suns player prop bets

Odds provided by FanDuel

Devin Booker 6+ assists +320

Coming off a hamstring injury, Booker could look to pass more than shoot. In his only fully healthy game, he had eight assists.

Reggie Bullock three-point ladder

  • 3+ threes +104
  • 4+ threes +310
  • 5+ threes +890

Bullock shoots, a lot. He played 44 minutes last time out and averages 7.8 3-pointers attempted per game. Moreover, he has three or more in five of his last six games.

Luka Doncic 40+ points +630

This is going to be an auto-bet for the entire series, even against a top-tier defense like Phoenix. Doncic had three 40-plus point games in the seven-game series against the Clippers last year. +630 implies that he does it once in this series, which has shown to be mostly untrue.

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