NBA playoffs: Best bets today include Hawks vs. Heat total, sharps say


Three NBA playoff games feature on today’s slate, but a few markets are catching meaningful betting attention.

All the information about to be presented is drawn from the Action Network PRO Report, which provides betting percentages and five “signals” — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — that help distinguish certain plays.

Although only one market triggers a majority of the signals today, multiple get the backing of two factors. So without further delay, here is the PRO report for today’s NBA games.

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Game #1 – Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-7, 217.5) (MIA leads series 3-1)

The Heat have a chance to close out its opening series tonight at home and the betting percentages go in its favor.

At this writing, the Heat have received 79 percent of all spread bets and 91 percent of the total spread handle, both highs amongst all six sides available today. The percentage delta also triggers one signal — the PRO system — in favor of the Heat. The “Playoffs: More Money on Favorites” system, which looks for favorites that have a positive difference in bets and money percentage, has a 61 percent historical win rate and 19 percent return on investment.

But, it’s the Hawks that receive two of the remaining four possible signals. We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the Hawks, which opened as seven-point underdogs. However, Hawks backers can get the visitors at +7.5 depending on where they shop.

Jimmy Butler drives to the basket during the Heat's Game 3 loss to the Hawks.
Jimmy Butler drives to the basket during the Heat’s Game 3 loss to the Hawks.
Getty Images

Additionally, Action Network model projections suggest the Hawks’ line may be a bit inflated. According to our NBA power ratings, the Hawks should only be a +5.2 underdog to the Heat.

In terms of the total, the under is receiving a lot of attention and qualifies as the only market available Tuesday that triggers a majority of signals. We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the under, which opened at 218.

Additionally, big money bettors have leaned toward the under as well. The bet count is split 50/50, but the under has received 68 percent of the total handle. Lastly, one top NBA expert from the Action Network is backing the under to round out the three signals in its favor.

Game #2 – Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies (-6, 232) (Series Tied 2-2)

The Timberwolves won a thrilling Game 4 to even the series, but most signals are going in favor of the Grizzlies tonight.

We have tracked sharp action coming in on the visiting Timberwolves, which opened as a seven-point underdog for Game 5 but now are widely available at +6.5. In terms of the percentages, the T’Wolves have seen 42 percent of all bets against 38 percent of the total handle.


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But of the four remaining signals, two go in favor of the Grizzlies. Just like the Heat, the Grizzlies’ percentages (58 percent bets, 62 percent money) triggers the same PRO system in favor of the hosts. Further, one top NBA expert from The Action Network is backing the Grizzlies tonight to trigger a second signal for the favorites.

In terms of the total, there’s little separating the two options. Sharp action has come in on the under, which opened at 233 points but has seen fell to 232. At this writing, that side of the total has seen 54 percent of all bets against 62 percent of the total handle.

Game #3 – New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-6.5, 214.5) (Series Tied 2-2)

The Pelicans produced a 118-103 victory in Game 4 to level the series and there’s little separating the sides for a pivotal Game 5.

We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the Pelicans, which opened as seven-point underdogs but are now widely available at +6.5. In terms of the betting splits, the Pelicans have received 60 percent of all spread bets against only 46 percent of the total handle.

For Phoenix (40 percent of all bets, 54 percent of the money), it also only has one signal going in its favor. Just like the Heat and Grizzlies, the Suns trigger the “Playoffs: More Money on Favorites” system as a result of the aforementioned percentages.

As for the total, there’s only one signal going in favor of either side. We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the under, which opened at 214.5 and has largely held steady at that number (there is one 215.5 available at -115 at writing). Percentage-wise, the under has received 54 percent of all bets and 62 percent of the total handle.



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